Introduction

Copper, the first metal discovered and used by humans, plays a crucial role in the national economy and modern life. Despite being the world’s largest copper consumer, China has relatively poor copper resources. According to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), global copper reserves were 890 million tons by the end of 2022, with China accounting for only 3%. Major copper-rich countries include Chile, Australia, Peru, Russia, Mexico, and the United States. Although China’s copper reserves rank among the highest globally, they remain insufficient relative to its consumption.

Global copper mine production is concentrated in countries rich in copper resources. To optimize resource allocation, it is economically sensible to build smelting facilities in these copper-rich regions or areas with high copper consumption.

This article provides an overview of the current status and development trends in global copper mines and copper smelting production capacity.

Analysis

Global Copper Mine and Smelting Capacity Status

According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), there are currently 840 copper mines (including operational and planned), 165 rough refineries, and 325 refineries worldwide. By the end of 2022, global copper mine production capacity reached 27.395 million tons, with 22.133 million tons in copper concentrate and 5.262 million tons in hydrometallurgy (SX-EW).

Table 1 Global Copper Mine Production Capacity and Forecast (Unit: million tons)

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Copper Concentrate	19.814	20.825	22.133	23.185	23.86	24.549	24.915
Hydrometallurgy of Copper	5.007	5.09	5.262	5.556	5.586	5.712	5.661
Total	24.821	25.915	27.359	28.741	29.446	30.261	30.576

From 2020 to 2026, the average annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production capacity is projected to be 3.5%. Specifically, copper concentrate capacity is expected to grow at 3.9%, while wet copper capacity will grow at 2.1%. In 2022, South America had the highest copper production capacity, exceeding 10 million tons (35.1% of the global total), followed by Asia with 5.37 million tons (18.7%). Africa and North America accounted for 15.3% and 14.2%, respectively. South American production is mainly in Chile and Peru, with capacities of 6.57 million tons and 2.92 million tons, respectively. Asian production is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Mongolia. In Africa, the DR Congo and Zambia contribute 4.08 million tons, or 92.7% of the continent’s total.

The top 20 copper mines globally have a combined capacity of 9.56 million tons, accounting for 34.9% of the world’s total. Chile leads with seven of these mines, including the largest open-pit (Escondida) and underground (El Teniente) copper mines, with capacities of 1.51 million tons and 400,000 tons, respectively. Peru has four significant mines, each with capacities ranging from 300,000 to 500,000 tons. Notably, three Chinese-invested mines—Las Bambas and Toromocho in Peru and Kamoa-Kakula in the DR Congo—rank among the top 20.

By the end of 2022, global copper smelting capacity stood at 24.703 million tons, with 65.5% using flash/continuous smelting technology.

Table 2 Global Copper Smelting Capacity and Forecast (Unit: million tons)

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Flash/Continuous Copper Smelting	15.685	15.715	16.17	16.22	16.69	17.04	17.04
China Smelting Technology	3.561	3.501	3.766	4.846	2.926	4.951	5.096
Reverberatory Furnace / Blast Furnace / Rotary Furnace, etc.	3.627	3.627	3.657	3.845	3.855	3.902	3.902
Other	1.09	1.07	1.11	1.12	1.385	1.855	1.855
Total	23.963	23.913	24.703	26.031	26.856	27.748	27.893

Regional Distribution

In terms of regional distribution, Asia leads with a copper smelting capacity of 14.59 million tons (59.1% of the global total), followed by Europe with 4.207 million tons (17%). Within Asia, China, Japan, India, and South Korea are key players. China alone has a capacity of 9.14 million tons (62.6% of Asia’s total and 37.0% of the global total). Japan’s capacity is 1.87 million tons (12.8% of Asia’s total). In Europe, Russia, Poland, and Germany are the major contributors, with capacities of 1.2 million tons, 740,000 tons, and 630,000 tons, respectively. South America’s smelting capacity is concentrated in Chile (1.71 million tons) and Peru (430,000 tons). In Africa, Zambia leads with 1.11 million tons, and Congo (Kinshasa) has a rough refining capacity of 180,000 tons. North American capacity is concentrated in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, totaling 1.43 million tons. Australia is the sole copper smelter in Oceania, with a capacity of 550,000 tons.

Outlook

Global copper mining and smelting capacities are expected to grow moderately in the coming years. From 2022 to 2026, the average annual compound growth rate for copper mine production is projected to be 2.8%, with copper concentrate growing at 3% and hydrometallurgy at 1.8%. Copper smelting capacity is expected to grow at 3.1% annually, similar to copper concentrate growth.

In 2022, global copper mine capacity utilization was 81%, while smelting capacity utilization was 87% (73% when excluding cold material).

From 2022 to 2026, global copper mine production capacity is anticipated to increase by 3.18 million tons. This growth will be driven by additions in Chile and Peru (710,000 tons), Russia (500,000 tons), China, Iran, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan (940,000 tons), and the DR Congo (580,000 tons). These regions together will account for 86% of the new global capacity. Simultaneously, global copper smelting capacity is expected to rise by 3.19 million tons, with China, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Uzbekistan contributing 2.87 million tons (90% of the global total). Serbia is expected to add 100,000 tons, while other regions will see little change.

Overall, global copper mining and smelting capacities will likely exhibit simultaneous growth. Despite recent increases in copper concentrate processing charges (TC/RC), these charges remain relatively low compared to copper prices. The perceived shortage of copper concentrate and rapid expansion of smelting capacity contribute to this situation. While Asia’s smelting capacity will continue to grow, uncertainties remain about the timely completion of new facilities in China and Iran. For both mining and smelting enterprises, balanced profits and factors like production technology, scale, and environmental protection are essential for sustainable industry development.

Reference: Yusheng L. Brief Analysis of Global Copper Mine and Copper Smelting Capacity. China Nonferrous Metals News, 2023-06-08

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